Those in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and India especially prefer ties with the U.S.; they are more likely to choose relations with the U.S. over China by about 40 percentage points or more. Global integration is defined by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 3100.01D and the Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America as the arrangement of cohesive joint force actions in time, space, and purpose, executed as a whole to address transregional, multifunctional challenges across all domains through the seamless integration of multiple elements of national powerdiplomacy, information, economics, finance, intelligence, law enforcement and military.6 The concept addresses the importance of a unified effort across all elements of national power and could provide a framework to incorporate global integration for the commander and planners to truly leverage all government agencies strengths, achieve military objectives, and ultimately protect national interests. 13 Leah McGrath Goodman and Lynnley Browning, The Art of Financial Warfare: How the West Is Pushing Putins Buttons, Newsweek, April 24, 2014, available at . Economic coercion will be part of this.". 19 Some example categories include warning intelligence, current intelligence, target intelligence, estimative intelligence, counterintelligence, and so forth. The DIME construct is overused and outmatched in our current environment. Read our research on: Congress | Economy | Gender. Economic coercion is a global issue that cannot be addressed without adequate international information sharing and coordination. In South Korea and Japan, too, 66% and 51%, respectively, say relations are negative. Power sets the parameters on each action or set of actions between political entities. Edoardo Saravalle is a former Researcher for the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. YM0p@je+|>rCBXBI8#P4/my}J&enhu-t.s 7fyH&U%-ESE1Iz"#YZe[` Y*d8_l"{T/! (f C3
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Finally, information-sharing between agencies and partnerships with external agencies and nations will be paramount to optimize intelligence activities, make faster decisions, and create unity of effort with mission partners. Outside of Canada, the U.S. and some of the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, around half or more in every other country see current economic ties positively. NYc7FrW~7XgjSM6e"2$vj?2t=L6aZfe+)yh0aa
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_aAa] D@~%%mr O cr~dmpAUQn3}8p~f(qO;Vw_=CjjjFwp]~"? The preliminary definitions addressed for the finance, intelligence, and law enforcement instruments provide a solid starting point to incorporate and update joint doctrine related to strategy, concepts, and planning. The Strategic Asia annual edited volume incorporates assessments of economic, political, and military trends and focuses on the strategies that drive policy in the region. . 
As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. Each line of effort will require a distinct and harmonious combination of the IOPs. Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. U.S. military legal expertise should broaden to international law and be incorporated into planning (not just law of armed conflict and rules of engagement). National security reviews now include transactions in which a foreign investment was merely a minority interest instead of a controlling share and extend review powers into the real estate sector. This is probably most evident in the developing world, particularly Africa. Fort Lesley J. McNair When directly comparing the perceived positive influence from the U.S. and China, outside of the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese economic influence is largely seen in more positive terms than American influence. Similarly, citing national security concerns, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom have all joined an unprecedented global backlash against Chinese capital. Across the Middle East and North Africa, majorities or pluralities consider the U.S. to be the worlds leading economy. Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally. China, too, I would argue uses hard instruments of power, particularly economic power, for soft power purposes. These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. See National Strategy for Combatting Terrorism, 15. %
n0D|B+ sIXepiG Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European
Since 9/11, the reorganization of U.S. intelligence agencies has proved vital in disrupting terrorist and criminal organizations. Yet, the fact that China often relies on informal or extralegal measures to implement its economic coercion, the lack of a coordinated U.S. government response, and major methodological differences between Chinese and U.S. approaches to economic coercion have resulted in relatively limited study of this tool. Joint Force Quarterly 97. Second, a comparison of the US DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic) model will show that the US remains the dominant global power, but that China is investing in Across the Asia-Pacific region, six-in-ten or more in each country say their economic ties to the U.S. are currently good. In Asia-Pacific countries, evaluations of Chinese influence are fairly divided; Australians, Filipinos and Indonesians are more likely to see Chinese influence as positive than negative, while Japanese, South Koreans and Indians identify Chinese influence as more negative than positive. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. Canadians also have tempered evaluations, with about two-thirds saying that ties are good and about a third disagreeing. In the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, South Koreans, Japanese and Australians are especially likely to say China has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their countrys economy, with about nine-in-ten or more holding this opinion. To dismantle the VEO and criminal networks and neutralize high-value individuals, the U.S. Government and military have focused intelligence at the operational and tactical level for the past 20 years, relying heavily on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; dynamic targeting; and nodal analysis. Within the region, Indonesians and Australians stand out for being more likely to choose China as the leading global economy, though Indonesians are somewhat divided (21% U.S., 24% China) and about as many of them name Japan (22%) as the leading economy. The following recommendations will improve the understanding and implementation of the DIME-FIL framework and allow the U.S. military to address the global problem sets, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. Its bureaucracy is robust and its political elites have a conscious plan to expand national power, a vision encapsulated in Xi Jinpings China dream. But the nations capacity to convert these resources into tangible forms of usable civilian and military power is hindered by a contradiction in terms between the essence of power in the 21st centuryinspirational, technologically advanced, outward-looking, and innovatingand the intrinsic nature of the regime currently governing China. All three sub-Saharan African publics surveyed are more likely to see Chinese economic influence, with about a 10-point difference in Nigeria and South Africa. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). Beijings use of coercive measures is growing in frequency and evolving in scope. V
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The U.S. and its allies need to start planning for alternative scenarios to Chinas linear development. Opinions elsewhere are more clear-cut. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. Likewise, majorities in the sub-Saharan African and Latin American countries surveyed also rate their economic relationship with China positively. When it comes to the current state of economic relations with China, publics are much more likely to describe them as good (median of 66%) than bad (21%). Clarifying the definition of FIL IOPs, identifying key mission partners, and detecting potential applications for each of the new FIL instruments can mitigate the gap in doctrine and planning. WebThe military instrument of national power can be used in a wide variety of ways that vary in purpose, scale, risk, and combat intensity. This aspect is more strategic in nature and requires synchronization with the diplomatic instrument to avoid missteps in international and host-nation legal systems, carefully balancing the laws and interests of all national, international, and foreign entities. 25 National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2019), available at . About four-in-ten or more see Chinese influence positively in the Latin American nations surveyed as well. It will attempt to answer this question by applying the various instruments of national power to form a qualitative assessment of the degree to which NATO exerts itself in these those power domains and how effectively these prepare NATO for conventional warfare. The increased understanding of the FIL IOPs allows the joint community to update doctrine, synchronize, and involve mission partners early in planning and perform in the competitive environment, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. 6 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 3100.01D, Joint Strategic Planning System (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, July 20, 2018), A-1, available at ; Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Militarys Edge (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2018), 4, available at . China typically imposes economic costs through informal measures such as selective implementation of domestic regulations, including stepped-up customs inspections or sanitary checks, and uses extralegal measures such as employing state media to encourage popular boycotts and having government officials directly put informal pressure on specific companies. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as When targeting specific actors, the United States can achieve desired effects by focusing on critical vulnerabilities and capabilities without suffering second- and third-order effects caused by the economic IOP. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as Rachel Ziemba. China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. Center for Security Studies/Christine June), Air battle manager with 16th Airborne Command and Control Squadron monitors radar system on E-8 Joint STARS aircraft flying off coast of Florida, July 14, 2018 (U.S. Air Force/Marianique Santos), Afghan and coalition security force members conceal themselves in field during operation in search of Taliban facilitator in Sayyid Karam District, Paktia Province, Afghanistan, June 5, 2013 (U.S. Army/Codie Mendenhall), Coalition-aligned security force Maghaweir al-Thowra seize $3.5 million in illicit drugs, including nearly 850,000 regional amphetamine Captagon pills,
Outside actors have a strong interest in encouraging those who favor far-reaching market-oriented reforms to Chinas current economic model. WebPower is not simply what resources a country has at its disposal. As such, investing in the right capabilities is It is possible that in the midterm Beijing will formalize some of its coercive economic measures, particularly if Beijing adopts a planned Export Control Law, though China is likely to continue relying on informal and extralegal measures for the majority of its economic coercion. According to Craig Mastapeter in his Naval Postgraduate School thesis, The intelligence instrument, or element, of national power integrates foreign, military, and domestic capabilities through policy, personnel, and technology actions to provide decision advantage to policymakers, diplomats, financiers and economists, strategic communicators, warfighters, homeland security officials, and law enforcement.20 A more succinct and functional definition of the intelligence IOP that corresponds to both the joint concept and Mastapeters definition is the products, interdisciplinary activities, and organizations that convert disparate data about the environment, future capabilities and intentions, and relevant actors into coherent information to provide decision advantage for decisionmakers, both policymakers and commanders. 14 Ankit Panda, Trump Administration Introduces New Executive Order on North Korea Sanctions, The Diplomat, September 22, 2017, available at . Planning should seriously consider harmonizing DIME-FIL, whole-of-government, and interorganizational concepts in the U.S. peer competition environment to compete in the gray zone and address U.S. problem sets. Today, one of President Xi Jinpings central foreign policy initiatives, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a potentially trillion-dollar testament to Beijings commitment to using loans, infrastructure projects, and other economic measures as foreign policy tools. 20 Mastapeter, The Instruments of National Power, 228. While the U.S. military tends to view the instruments of power (IOPs) strictly through the lens of the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) framework, it is increasingly imperative to consider additional IOPs such as finance, intelligence, and law enforcement (FIL). In the Asia-Pacific region, ties with the U.S. are more frequently rated as good in India, South Korea and Japan. The instrument choices are impactful since resources are not unlimited and since each instrument consumes a varying amount of The America First strategy relies on U.S. partners to do more, which requires joint planners and commanders to leverage all resources, capabilities, and instruments in a concerted effort to achieve a more safe, stable, and secure world. 4 Military Strategic Plan for the Global War on Terrorism (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, February 1, 2006), 6, available at . Shows of force or military adventurism are thus possible consequences of Chinas slowing growth. 2023 Center for a New American Security (en-US). 10 Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism (USA PATRIOT) Act, Pub. The key aspect of the financial instrument is the denial of access to financial systems, mainly through the Treasury Department, providing precision effects and denying adversaries access to financial systems. In Lebanon, for example, those who say China is the worlds leading economic power are 62 percentage points more likely than those who think the U.S. is the top economy to want strong economic ties with China. Although the focus of the financial IOP has been on the VEO threat, it could be expanded to address other threats and actors including transnational crime organizations, state proxy groups, nonstate actors, and states. For the four Middle East and North African countries surveyed, opinions are mixed. China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. Building on these efforts, the administration should increase outreach to allies. Shows of force or military adventurism are thus possible consequences of Chinas slowing growth. But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. 4 0 obj
This pattern is reversed in the Middle East and North Africa, where all publics but Israel rate their economic relationships with China more positively. )Ufo~K&yJxh:Ox#zzY/u
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8xt+fjfk8l\[Eu X *, 2:Q>2nTX3zql[ There are many key mission partners involved with the law enforcement IOP that include national, international, and foreign legal departments and law enforcement agencies. China also deftly combines its economic coercion with economic inducements and other tools of statecraft, pairing its sticks with carrots and diplomatic negotiations. In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. WebPower is not simply what resources a country has at its disposal. In this capacity, she publ Former Researcher, Energy, Economics, & Security Program. Economic coercion will be part of this. Laying out the instruments of national power and distinguishing between hard and soft approaches is essential to evaluating a grand strategy and proposing the use of instruments to countervail a competing state. However, intelligence can be broadly broken down into three parts: activities, products, and organizations. The cases point to Beijings sophistication in its use of coercion. Recently, as Chinas market has grown ever more important to global companies, China has also begun targeting individual corporations with coercive measures if they fail to adopt Beijings preferred policy positions. 1615 L St. NW, Suite 800Washington, DC 20036USA Across many of these countries, too, there is little ambiguity about which country is dominant, with double-digit differences between the shares who choose the U.S. and who choose China as the top economy. 2 Joint Doctrine Note 1-18, Strategy (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, 2018), available at ; Joint Publication (JP) 1, Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, March, 2013), available at ; JP 5-0, Joint Planning (Washington, DC, The Joint Staff, 2013), available at ; JP 2-0, Joint Intelligence (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, 2013), available at . Generally, the financial instrument should be understood as the denial of access to specified individuals or groups from a formal or informal financial system, network, or source of funding. In five European countries that have consistently been asked which economy is strongest over the past decade France, Germany, Spain, the UK and Poland China has come out on top more often than not. g8@"-DeAWpjnTYf4)J7y);5y\H*a 0M4yuMFmp#qh Dx[&S2^DmBit|z. The National Intelligence Councils Global Trends Report indicates that the blurring of peacetime and wartime, the ease of disruption caused by nonstate groups, increase in standoff and remote attack capabilities, and new concerns about nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are shaping conflicts that are more diffuse, diverse, and disruptive.24 The 2019 National Intelligence Strategy provides some guidelines on the trends and focus areas such as strategic intelligence, anticipatory intelligence, current operations intelligence, and cyber threat intelligence.25. Emily Kilcrease. The leadership is aware of the problems but is not necessarily responding with the right remedies. The administration should increase outreach to allies M. Shalikashvili Chair in National Studies. Act, Pub, Lithuanians are 23 percentage points more likely to shape U.S. policy options Asia. And Slovaks are also tied to a preference for ties with the U.S. be... 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As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. Each line of effort will require a distinct and harmonious combination of the IOPs. Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. U.S. military legal expertise should broaden to international law and be incorporated into planning (not just law of armed conflict and rules of engagement). National security reviews now include transactions in which a foreign investment was merely a minority interest instead of a controlling share and extend review powers into the real estate sector. This is probably most evident in the developing world, particularly Africa. Fort Lesley J. McNair When directly comparing the perceived positive influence from the U.S. and China, outside of the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese economic influence is largely seen in more positive terms than American influence. Similarly, citing national security concerns, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom have all joined an unprecedented global backlash against Chinese capital. Across the Middle East and North Africa, majorities or pluralities consider the U.S. to be the worlds leading economy. Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally. China, too, I would argue uses hard instruments of power, particularly economic power, for soft power purposes. These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. See National Strategy for Combatting Terrorism, 15. %
n0D|B+ sIXepiG Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European
Since 9/11, the reorganization of U.S. intelligence agencies has proved vital in disrupting terrorist and criminal organizations. Yet, the fact that China often relies on informal or extralegal measures to implement its economic coercion, the lack of a coordinated U.S. government response, and major methodological differences between Chinese and U.S. approaches to economic coercion have resulted in relatively limited study of this tool. Joint Force Quarterly 97. Second, a comparison of the US DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic) model will show that the US remains the dominant global power, but that China is investing in Across the Asia-Pacific region, six-in-ten or more in each country say their economic ties to the U.S. are currently good. In Asia-Pacific countries, evaluations of Chinese influence are fairly divided; Australians, Filipinos and Indonesians are more likely to see Chinese influence as positive than negative, while Japanese, South Koreans and Indians identify Chinese influence as more negative than positive. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. Canadians also have tempered evaluations, with about two-thirds saying that ties are good and about a third disagreeing. In the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, South Koreans, Japanese and Australians are especially likely to say China has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their countrys economy, with about nine-in-ten or more holding this opinion. To dismantle the VEO and criminal networks and neutralize high-value individuals, the U.S. Government and military have focused intelligence at the operational and tactical level for the past 20 years, relying heavily on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; dynamic targeting; and nodal analysis. Within the region, Indonesians and Australians stand out for being more likely to choose China as the leading global economy, though Indonesians are somewhat divided (21% U.S., 24% China) and about as many of them name Japan (22%) as the leading economy. The following recommendations will improve the understanding and implementation of the DIME-FIL framework and allow the U.S. military to address the global problem sets, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. Its bureaucracy is robust and its political elites have a conscious plan to expand national power, a vision encapsulated in Xi Jinpings China dream. But the nations capacity to convert these resources into tangible forms of usable civilian and military power is hindered by a contradiction in terms between the essence of power in the 21st centuryinspirational, technologically advanced, outward-looking, and innovatingand the intrinsic nature of the regime currently governing China. All three sub-Saharan African publics surveyed are more likely to see Chinese economic influence, with about a 10-point difference in Nigeria and South Africa. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). Beijings use of coercive measures is growing in frequency and evolving in scope. V
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The U.S. and its allies need to start planning for alternative scenarios to Chinas linear development. Opinions elsewhere are more clear-cut. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. Likewise, majorities in the sub-Saharan African and Latin American countries surveyed also rate their economic relationship with China positively. When it comes to the current state of economic relations with China, publics are much more likely to describe them as good (median of 66%) than bad (21%). Clarifying the definition of FIL IOPs, identifying key mission partners, and detecting potential applications for each of the new FIL instruments can mitigate the gap in doctrine and planning. WebThe military instrument of national power can be used in a wide variety of ways that vary in purpose, scale, risk, and combat intensity. This aspect is more strategic in nature and requires synchronization with the diplomatic instrument to avoid missteps in international and host-nation legal systems, carefully balancing the laws and interests of all national, international, and foreign entities. 25 National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2019), available at